Preparing for the Next Macroeconomic Cycle — and Its Risks

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz and Martin Reeves

February 12, 2021

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Summary.

When the pandemic hit last year, business leaders’ time horizons contracted sharply, forcing their focus on issues of survival, adaptation, and resilience.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New York office and the firm’s global chief economist. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Paul Swartz is an executive director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Martin Reeves is the chairman of Boston Consulting Group’s BCG Henderson Institute. He is a coauthor, with Jack Fuller, of The Imagination Machine (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021) and a coauthor, with Bob Goodson, of Like: The Button That Changed the World (Harvard Business Review Press, April 2025).

Preparing for the Next Macroeconomic Cycle — and Its Risks

Summary.

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