Weighing the Risks of Inflation, Recession, and Stagflation in the U.S. Economy

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz and Martin Reeves

June 10, 2022

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Summary.

The macroeconomic outlook continues to dominate the executive agenda. Last year, when demand overshot and supply chains sputtered, many firms discovered pricing power they never experienced before.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New York office and the firm’s global chief economist. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Paul Swartz is an executive director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Martin Reeves is the chairman of Boston Consulting Group’s BCG Henderson Institute. He is a coauthor, with Jack Fuller, of The Imagination Machine (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021) and a coauthor, with Bob Goodson, of Like: The Button That Changed the World (Harvard Business Review Press, April 2025).

Read more on Business and society or related topics Business management, Economic cycles and trends, Economics, Recessions and Inflation

Weighing the Risks of Inflation, Recession, and Stagflation in the U.S. Economy

Summary.

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