What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz and Martin Reeves

July 21, 2023

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Summary.

The U.S. economy has defied the doomsayers once again. More than a year has passed since a recession was seen as a foregone conclusion and a “soft landing” pronounced near impossible. But today, the soft landing is well advanced, even if not complete: The Fed has found success in lowering inflation without triggering a recession. The labor market, the only reliable evidence that the economy is in recession, has cooled without pushing up the unemployment rate.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New York office and the firm’s global chief economist. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Paul Swartz is an executive director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office. He is a coauthor of Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk (Harvard Business Review Press, 2024).

Martin Reeves is the chairman of Boston Consulting Group’s BCG Henderson Institute. He is a coauthor, with Jack Fuller, of The Imagination Machine (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021) and a coauthor, with Bob Goodson, of Like: The Button That Changed the World (Harvard Business Review Press, April 2025).

Read more on Economic cycles and trends or related topics Economics, Government policy and regulation, Recessions and Inflation

What Happens After the U.S. Economy’s Soft Landing?

Summary.

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